2023 Hits Big

2023 Hits Big

January 03, 2024

Happy New Year!

What a year, what year, what a year.  2023 saw the S&P500 rise about 24% and the US Aggregate bond index was even up a couple percent.  After a dismal 2022, we are just about back to record highs on the S&P500, which is a much-needed relief to the market psyche.  The only real issue I see is that it will probably be a longer road than normal to push through and maintain that high.

One of the issues that investors face is always thinking there is a top to the market.  Then, once that top is blown open, another top seems to form…and so on and so forth as it’s been since the beginning.  Obviously, we can’t tell when or how much, but a pullback might happen with us getting near the record again.  It will take some good news for the buyers to jump in.  Does that mean we just sell and repurchase.  Not exactly because the timing of these ups and downs is too difficult to match.  We just keep our eye on the long term over these short-term movements.

Stock market traders are expecting to see the Federal Reserve cut rates this year.  The Fed has already alluded to this.  However, investors are expecting much more than a few cuts.  The futures markets are expecting up to six!  That is a lot of cuts.  If that doesn’t happen, it will be hard for the stock and bond markets to continue their amazing path upwards, but we could see a slow and steady upward angle.

Of course, that’s the reason the markets are around in the first place.  For traders to place their bets and try to guess the future.  If everyone was right all the time, there would be no need for anyone else to invest, but rather follow the next guru around.  However, in our industry, there’s a common slang term called a furu.  That’s short for “fake guru”.  There are a ton of them around writing click-bait articles to sell ad space.  Keep an eye out for those types.

Now back to your investmentsà  With the markets coming back so big this year, it’s a great time to review your Risk Tolerance.  If you recall any dismal emotions from the ups and downs over the last couple of years, let’s take a look at where your risk is set.  I’m always happy to review it.

We appreciate you investing with us!

Larry Mroczkowski

President

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. All investing involves risks, including the loss of principal.