Another outstanding month with June up about 3.5% from the end of May. That gives us a YTD S&P500 return of over 14%! The aggregate bond market continues to struggle without any rate cuts and is still down on the year ~2%.
There is an incredibly positive stat for when the S&P500 has double-digit gains the first half of the year. You can read all about it here. Of course, history doesn’t always repeat itself.
The news regarding the inflation index of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was welcomed. It was in line with expectations and didn’t create too much volatility. That’s an outstanding sign that we might be getting back to corporate earnings, rather than Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Somehow though I’m sure the Fed will find its way back into the news cycle.
With the markets at record highs (that’s the goal, right?), I have wondered for a number of years when I’ll finally get to see the S&P500 hit 10,000. I can still remember when the DJIA hit 10,000. People were wearing hats on tv and seemingly talking about it endlessly. It was almost like a virtual party anywhere you went. Of course that was 25 years ago. Maybe there’s just some sort of nostalgia in it for me as I was just starting my learning curve at the time. Then just four years ago the NASDAQ Composite hit 10,000 without too much ado.
When the S&P500 hit 5,000 back in February, I began to do a basic calculation based on historical returns. If we were to just get the average 30-year return (with dividends reinvested), the index would hit 10,000 in 2031. If we were to use that same calculation with today’s S&P 500 of about 5,500, then we would hit 10,000 in 2030, which would be incredible. Does the number really mean anything in the long-term, not really. It’s only a hurdle and celebratory round number. That being said, I still think it would be fun to see! Of course, none of this should be considered a prediction and past results do not guarantee future results.
I hope you have a great Independence Day! Remember that they make longer lighters now for those DIY firework launchers out there. 😊
Thank you for your continued support and trust in our firm. We are continually grateful.
Larry Mroczkowski
President
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. All investing involves risks, including the loss of principal.