Will the Fed Surprise in May?

May 01, 2023

April gave us a welcoming upside before the Fed decides on interest rates this week.  All eyes will be on the language they use when announcing the rate update.  Investors will be wondering whether the Fed is happy where rates are at, or do they seem to be softening a bit.  With another bank failure at the end of the month, fingers are crossed that they hold the line on rate hikes.  I’m often asked if things like that affect our local banks.  I’m in the camp to where I don’t believe so.  I think we’re lucky to be living in the Midwest where our local institutions seem to not be part of the larger, entrepreneurial world of technology financing.  Even if we did see a local bank failure, the FDIC has set a precedent to where all bank deposits have been covered.  Whether that is the right way or not is for an entirely different argument outside our scope here.

After we see what the Fed does for rates this week, we will probably be on our way (finally) to having a market that reacts mostly to corporate earnings.  There has been a larger concern about whether we will see a recession in the future.  To me it almost feels like we’re in a smaller one already.  As I am meeting with many of you, it seems that things like larger purchases are being pushed off for a little while.  Now it’s only anecdotal evidence so we will see where the economy ends up in the next couple quarters.  I’m always a market optimist so I don’t mind riding out any downturns´╗┐ like last year in hopes of the markets coming back with a vengeance when they eventually turn around.

A bit of housekeeping…

  • I am told that the large pylon sign will be updated in the next couple weeks as the weather gets better. Though, if it decides to snow all day on Monday, then that may delay everything.
  • I hear from many clients that your friends or relatives are not as happy with their advisor as you are with us. It makes me feel so extremely grateful for you.  Please feel free to pass our name along to anyone you know.  We would be happy to review their current investments free of charge to see if we can help them.

Again, thank you for your continued trust in us.  Let’s hope summer really does decide to arrive in May!

Larry Mroczkowski

President

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